Research on short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting model based on multi-strategy improved squirrel search algorithm and support vector machine




HIGHLIGHTS
  • What: At the same time, after analyzing its principle and optimization process, in this paper, a strategic method to improve the shortcomings of SSA is proposed. For the effectiveness of the experiment, two typical data sets were used from the months of June and December. | Vol:.(1234567890) 14:14348 | The prediction results of the other four models are poor and there is a certain gap between the curve fitting and the prediction results of the model proposed in this paper.
  • Who: Ruijin Zhu from the (UNIVERSITY) have published the Article: Research on short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting model based on multi-strategy improved squirrel search algorithm and support vector machine, in the Journal: Scientific Reports Scientific Reports of 11/01/2024
  • How: Based on the sigmoid function this paper proposes a | Vol.(1234567890) 1414348 | f (x)=1 + e-x Chaotic based dynamic opposition‑based learning Aiming at the squirrel population iteration`s tendency to fall into local optimization after the position update this paper proposes a chaotic based dynamic OBL to update the squirrel position. At the same time to verify the optimization performance of MISSA it should be compared with the other four metaheuristic algorithms. | Vol.(1234567890) 1414348 | Optimization performance test based on CEC2021 This paper presents the optimization performance of the proposed optimization algorithm on challenging CEC2021 benchmark test functions and compares it with the optimization results of GNDO DBO WSO and SSA. The specific results are shown in Table 8 where CR represents the principal component contribution rate and TCR represents the total contribution rate.
SUMMARY

    To find the optimal hyperparameters (σ and C) of SVM, MISSA is proposed in this paper. | 14:14348 | 3 Vol.:(0123456789) Improved squirrel search algorithm SSA is an optimization algorithm based on squirrel foraging behavior proposed by Mohit Jain et_al in ­201736,37. Three evaluation indicators of the other three SVM-based models are larger than that of the proposed model, but the prediction time of this model is also increased. At the same time, it can be seen that in the SVM-based model, the prediction time is further increased due to the improved methods (3 and 4), but the three evaluation indicators obtained has significant advantages. By comprehensively analyzing the prediction results, MISSA-SVM can generate a more accurate prediction at the expense of a small part of the prediction time. To improve the accuracy of the power generation prediction of PV power stations, a prediction model based on SVR is proposed. The PV power generation prediction model based on the MISSA-SVR is established. The test results effectively proved that the MISSA has the fastest optimization speed and the highest precision, which can ensure the accuracy of the MISSA in SVR super parameter optimization. After using two kinds of data sets for example analysis, compared with the other prediction models, the MISSA-SVR greatly improved prediction accuracy at the expense of some prediction efficiency. The three evaluation indicators obtained by simulation are optimal, which proves the effectiveness of the prediction model proposed in this paper. | 14:14348 | 15 Vol.:(0123456789) @@

LAY DEFINITIONS
  • squirrel: A family of the order Rodentia which contains 49 genera. Some of the more common genera are MARMOTA, which includes the marmot and woodchuck; Sciurus, the gray squirrel, S
  • algorithm: A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task.
  • short-term: A term is a period of duration, time or occurrence, in relation to an event. To differentiate an interval or duration, common phrases are used to distinguish the observance of length are near-term or short-term, medium-term or mid-term and long-term
  • Research: Critical and exhaustive investigation or experimentation, having for its aim the discovery of new facts and their correct interpretation, the revision of accepted conclusions, theories, or laws in the light of newly discovered facts, or the practical application of such new or revised conclusions, theories, or laws. (Webster, 3d ed)
  • forecasting: Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date
  • support: In mathematics, the support of a real-valued function f is the subset of the domain containing those elements which are not mapped to zero. If the domain of f is a topological space, the support of f is instead defined as the smallest closed set containing all points not mapped to zero
  • power: In physics, power is the amount of energy transferred or converted per unit time. In the International System of Units, the unit of power is the watt, equal to one joule per second
  • Principal component analysis: The principal components of a collection of points in a real p-space are a sequence of p direction vectors, where the iu1d57u1d78 vector is the direction of a line that best fits the data while being orthogonal to the first i-1 vectors. Here, a best-fitting line is defined as one that minimizes the average squared distance from the points to the line

Licence: cc-by

Site reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65159-1.pdf

DOI reference: https://www.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65159-1

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